This year's Atlantic hurricane season officially started on June 1 and will run through November 30. As the season is nearing its peak next month, the National Hurricane Center monitors the weather activities in the region. After having a relatively quiet start in recent weeks, the Atlantic Ocean has suddenly become very active with multiple storms. Meteorologists report the signs that the season will begin to increase in intensity with the possibility of more named storms this year than usual.
Tropical Storm Emily Taking Shape
The National Hurricane Center in the Atlantic tracks at least five storm systems. While Tropical Storm Hilary got closer to southern California on Sunday, the agency announced that another tropical storm had developed into the fifth named storm of the season.
As of 11 a.m., ET August 20, the satellite data indicated that Emily was found at about 100 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It had maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and is heading west-northwest at about 10 mph.
The National Hurricane Center further described that Emily is expected to continue its current track while maintaining its strength. However, by August 22, this tropical storm was predicted to weaken into a post-tropical remnant low.
Increased Chances of Atlantic Hurricanes
On August 10, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced an increase in the Atlantic hurricane prediction this year. Earlier this season, the agency named around 12 to 17 storms, but now the forecasters project 14 to 21 storms since the prediction currently includes both tropical storms and hurricanes.
From a prediction announced in May, experts have increased the chances of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60%, while the likelihood of a near-normal activity was reduced to 25%. This means the region has a 15% chance of experiencing a below-normal season.
According to Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season outlook forecaster for NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, two factors are predicted to influence storm activity this season: El Niño and warm sea surface temperatures. Considering these factors, the updated prediction calls for more hurricane activity, so the agency urges everyone to start preparing for the continuing season.
In the monthly outlook released on June 8, forecasters at the National Weather Service issued an advisory that noted the presence of El Niño conditions. There is also a greater than 95% chance it will strengthen gradually through the Northern Hemisphere winter. Although this climate pattern gets strong in the Pacific, it demonstrates a slower emergence over the Atlantic Ocean, so its effects are still not yet felt.
The continuous warming of ocean waters in the Northern Atlantic Ocean is also responsible for increased hurricane predictions. Experts measured the temperature of ocean waters, and it was found that it is 1.2 degrees Celsius above average and is the hottest since the records started in 1950. Since hurricanes absorb heat energy from the ocean, this means that hotter surface water will lead to the formation of stronger storms.
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